Tungsten Price Surge: 2026 Industry In-Depth Review and Outlook

In 2026, tungsten prices have entered a "rising-easily, falling-hardly" new normal, triggering a profound reshaping of the industry. As of February 25, 2026, prices across the tungsten industrial chain have skyrocketed over the past year. The price of black tungsten concentrate (65%) has surged from 143,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2024 to 735,000 yuan/ton, a staggering increase of 415%; tungsten powder has skyrocketed from 316 yuan/kilogram to 1,800 yuan/kilogram, a surge of 470%; and tungsten carbide powder has risen from 311 yuan/kilogram to 1,750 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 463%. This set of figures implies that for tooling companies purchasing external tungsten carbide powder, raw material costs have surged to 4.6 times the level of a year ago, creating immense survival pressure for the industry.

The fundamental reason why tungsten prices struggle to retreat is a fundamental reversal in the supply-demand fundamentals. On the supply side, China, the primary supplier, has continuously tightened policy controls; mining quotas for 2025 fell by 6.5% year-on-year, and export volumes dropped sharply. Simultaneously, the grade of domestic tungsten ore is declining, and mining costs have breached 100,000 yuan/ton, leading to an irreversible deterioration in resource endowment. In contrast, new overseas projects have long cycles, with less than 5,000 tons of new capacity added globally in 2026, insufficient to fill the gap. On the demand side, the penetration rate of photovoltaic (PV) tungsten wire has surpassed 60%, with an annual incremental demand exceeding 4,500 tons. Additionally, multiple countries are establishing strategic reserves, further depleting spot supplies and strengthening market bullish expectations.

Multiple leading institutions predict that the upward shift of the tungsten price center is strongly supported and that the supply-demand gap will persist. CICC forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, the global tungsten supply-demand gap will account for over 17% of demand, making supply shortages a norm. This implies that the tight supply-demand balance will not only fail to ease but may even intensify, with the industry remaining in a high-price operating state for the long term.

Facing the "High-Tungsten-Price Era," companies need to adjust their strategies to meet the challenges. Regarding inventory strategy, it is recommended to establish strategic inventories within the limits of cash flow capacity; buying early is equivalent to securing profits and order confidence. In terms of product transformation, companies should abandon the low-end "Red Ocean" and shift towards high-value-added products such as high-end CNC inserts and precision micro-drills, utilizing performance advantages to reduce customer price sensitivity. In market expansion, companies can leverage the advantages of the domestic industrial chain to seize overseas market share, achieving a transition from "domestic substitution" to "global substitution."

The skyrocketing tungsten price is an unavoidable stress test that will wash away low-end capacities, allowing enterprises with genuine technology and foresight to reveal their true colors amidst the wave.